What’s working. What’s not.
As we near the holidays it’s a good time to sit down and address the state of the union of Blockchain. Not just price, but actual blockchain and crypto activity. Here’s my takes, starting with the positives.
1. EOS is working.
There are now 43 Million daily transactions on EOS, versus 500K on ETH. Even if most of these are “spam”, thats still an enormous gap, and one that nobody would have predicted 12 months ago.
2. Mobile Wallets with dApps are working.
The idea of a simple mobile wallet communicating with a mobile web dApp is clearly working. Lynx, Meet.one, PocketToken and Tron Wallet are all growing organically, and quickly.
3. Simple Games are working.
Simple betting games are now really working. BetDice is the category leader on EOS. But TronBet is doing well on the Tron platform. EOS Knights has fantastic ARPUs on EOS as a native fantasy game, despite relatively weak implementation and UX. Many, many more games are coming.
4. Tron is somewhat working.
As crazy as it sounds, Tron has fast followed EOS and is basically working.
5. Stable Coins are working.
MakerDAI is the one bright spot on ETH. People are using it more and more. Coinbase now has USDC from Circle. Stable Coins are going to be a big deal in 2019. My personal belief is EOS + StableCoin will be a winner.
6. EOS DEXs are working.
NewDex, Findex etc. are working well (at relatively small volumes, but bigger than some would predict) on EOS. We’ll see how regulation plays out, but it seems that DEXs are here to stay. Wallet integration with Lynx and others makes it extremely easy to transact.
7. CoinBase is working.
No question that despite the crypto meltdown Coinbase is doing great. It’s still the easiest on-ramp for fiat.
8. Binance is working.
For pure speculation, CEXs are still the main deal. But per point 6, DEXs are roaring.
What’s Not working (Yet)?
- Ethereum. Still too slow. too expensive. Lack of progress, but hopefully we see something in 2019.
- Cardano, Hashgraph, dFinity, rChain, Tezos, etc... These are still not launched. Could they work? Possibly. Will they all work? unlikely.
- HODLing. Clearly not working. Doesn’t mean that it wont, and generally its a bad idea to sell anything at down 80 or 90%, but clearly the industry did not see this one coming
- STOs. Not yet a thing. Could be a thing. But the regulation is not moving quickly.
- Apple, Google, Facebook being crypto friendly. Does not seem like it will change in 2019.
- Complex dApps. The ecosystem is still too young for most things other than games. With < 100,000 daily dapp users, you are not going to see mainstream business or consumer adoption. It’s just too early. So forget about supply chain, disrupting energy markets, or real estate just yet. It will take much more time.
- Augur is not working. Falls into the “too complex / too slow” category. Might work on EOS.
- Native apps. Good luck with native apps (other than wallets) in the app stores. They are not likely to make it through (esp Apple). I hope this changes. And even if they do, the format of Wallet + dapp explorer seems to be the winner.