First, the arguments AGAINST
- So let’s start by stating the obvious: it hasn’t YET. There are about 2 million Bitcoin wallets with over $1,000 in them. There are at most 100,000 dApp users. And this is after 10 YEARS!. So should we give up hope?
- Second argument against: PayPal and Venmo work just great. Venmo not so much oversees, but PayPal seems to work just fine.
- Third argument against: We don’t need it for apps either. In app purchase is fantastic. Apple and Google will never give up their 30%
- Fourth argument against. People will never understand private keys. Grandma will never copy a 51 character alphanumeric code somewhere. Get real!
- Fifth argument against. With credit cards, I can get my money back. Membership has its rewards. The good folks at Visa and Amex have my back.
- Sixth argument: it’s only good for drug deals and porn. That’s it. Criminal activity. Governments will never allow this.
- The UX is horribly complicated. I tried MetaMask and I gave up. Who understands this stuff? I am sticking to PayPal.
Next, the reasons why it will in fact, succeed and change EVERYTHING.
Ok so now let’s state why I am 100% convinced, that 10 years from now we are going to look back and say “Duh”. With the same certainty as when I saw the first iPhone app, I knew that apps would change the world. The same certainty as when I saw Netscape for the first time. Exactly the same.
- First reason why this is going to happen: we have already digitized almost everything. Money and certificates of value are the last things to be digitized.
- PayPal is like the Nokia “smart phone”. Yes it’s a first pass at digitizing payments, but its not the solution. Crypto is the solution. Crypto is the iPhone for Payments.
- Yes, Apple and Google are both taking 30% on all digital in-app purchases. That’s an absolute INCREDIBLE AMOUNT. Imagine going to buy coffee at Starbucks, and Visa took a 30% transaction fee! As we move into a world where MOST of the things that we buy will be DIGITAL GOODS, that just won’t hold. Either Apple or Google will give in — and then the other will have to follow suit, or a new player like Amazon or Facebook will introduce a phone that allows FREE in app crypto payments.
- Either way, getting value from A to B, where either A or B or both are apps is absolutely GOING TO HAPPEN. And it will happen with almost no friction.
- Finally, it’s not only about paying an app (one way), it’s about sending tokens of value BACK in return.
Spend crypto, get a ticket to a concert — delivered into your wallet
Spend crypto, get a 30 day pass to a spa — delivered into your wallet
Spend crypto, get a lottery ticket, and if you win, get more crypto.
Spend crypto, get a FortNite skin — delivered to your wallet
Spend crypto, get 10 shares of AAPL delivered in token form to your wallet
Spend crypto, get a share of a rental units cash flow, paid in crypto
Take a trip, get AA miles — delivered to your wallet
Fill out a form — get crypto delivered to your wallet
Do some online work — get crypto delivered to your wallet
Buy a pizza, get Dominoes rewards — delivered to your wallet
These tokens of value (or NFTs or Securities tokens) will actually potentially EXCEED the pure crypto use case. Even if we do get a crypto fiat USD, we still need the other side — the crypto assets.
So yes, buying drugs and porn is one use case. But just like people were worried about the Internet being used for those things (it is) that is hardly something that will stop, or should stop the inevitable progress of technology.
The next time you see a line at a bank, at a government office, at the DMV take a good look. These things wont exist in 20 years. Probably not in 10 years if we are lucky. It will be done with crypto — online
Wallets and Blockchains are going to get really easy to use. Just like digital cameras are today. I remember the first ones in 2000. They didn’t work very well and they cost a fortune. Now every person on this planet has one in their phone and they work great.
So don’t focus on the obvious flaws. Don’t worry about the bad UX. Private keys and all that. It’s all getting fixed. Just remember the Internet used to look awful, and there was nobody on it. The idea of people watching movies on the internet was preposterous. Same day delivery was a Joke (WebVan).
Crypto is here to stay. mark my words.