If you look right now Crypto looks like a lot like another bad idea. Bitcoin is down 66% from its peak. ETH and EOS are both down 75%. Nobody is using crypto dApps. The only use of crypto seems to be, quite literally, speculating and losing money.
It reminds me exactly of where the Nasdaq was in 2003. Dot Com had crashed and WebVan (along with Kozmo and pets.com) were paraded as one of the stupidest ideas even conceived. Amazon was widely laughed at as an overpriced “book store”. The smart money should stay invested in Barnes and Noble.
Fast forward 15 years and the Internet is easily 20 times as big. Facebook has 3 Billion users. Amazon is close to a trillion dollars in market cap. And the WebVan idea is so amazingly powerful that in just a few years Amazon Fresh has hit 2 Billion in sales and facilitated the takeover of Whole Foods.
What was the difference between WebVan and Amazon Fresh? The infrastructure layer. WebVan users didn’t have smart phones, apps, or ubiquitous broadband. So while the idea was great, it wasn’t great for 1998. And you could argue that Amazon Fresh in 2018 is not really a great idea for any other company other than Amazon.
So how does this all relate to crypto? The Bitcoin junkies argue that because the supply of Bitcoin is limited it eventually has to go up. I’m not buying that. Because while the supply of Bitcoin is limited, the supply of alternative cryptocurrencies is infinite. 21 million x infinity = infinity.
But the core idea of crypto — electronic money that you can’t take away is the single biggest and best idea humans have had since the Internet. It’s so obvious just like all great ideas are. Send money to anybody, anywhere, for free instantly. End of story.
So why is it not working? Well, again, infrastructure. We need three things to make this a reality
- a blockchain that is super fast
- a consumer software layer (wallets + apps) to access that blockchain
- a stable coin for value
All three of these are missing in the 2017 ecosystem. BTC and ETH are not fast enough. It takes minutes to confirm transactions.Centralized exchanges and wallets like MEW won’t work for consumer transactions. And BTC, ETH are too volatile: they can drop way too much in a single day to be used as a means of payment.
From my perspective all three of these are going to be definitively solved in the remaining 4 months of 2018. EOS works. It’s fast and reliable. It still has some quirks on RAM / account creation, but it’s 100x faster and better than ETH. The consumer app layer — just check out www.eoslynx.com and see what we are building. For stablecoins, check out TrueUSD as just one mainstream name.
The consumerization of crypto is about to start. The users are there. The time is right. This is not about scarcity of Bitcoin, this is going to be about consumer adoption.